(Click on image above to run simulation.) WhatŐs needed... Resources: Shoe box tops; toothpicks; computer applet and Geometer's Sketchpad Classroom Environment: Students in groups with access to computers; teacher demonstration station. Strategy: Groups work together to come up with a group prediction through experimentation.
Introduction

One of the reasons probability is one of my favorite topics to teach is that it can lead to many surprises along with some useful math done in interesting ways. The challenge in this activity is to see if students can make a prediction about the likelihood of toothpicks landing on lines when dropped randomly using experimental and theoretical data.

Preliminaries
• Make a set of shoebox top toothpick tossing ŇarenasÓ.
• Draw equidistant, parallel lines inside the shoebox top. The distance between the lines should be the same as the length of the toothpicks. Make one of these for each of your groups.
• If you don't have the boxes, you can demonstrate the experiment by dropping the toothpicks on a tiled floor. Here I dropped a bunch on a hardwood floor. (See photo below. I highlighted the toothpicks and lines on the floor. An adjustment will need to be made since the toothpicks will not be the same as the perpendicular distance between lines.)

Setting the Stage

• Have your students sit in groups or teams. You are facing them standing next to your one computer station. (Maybe even projecting on a digital white board.) Show them an arena for the experiment.
• Tell your class that they will be answering a question that was originally posed by a man named Georges-Louis Leclerc, Comte de Buffon about 250 years ago. "Suppose we have a floor made of parallel strips of wood, each the same width, and we drop a needle onto the floor. What is the probability that the needle will lie across a line between two strips?" (source: Wikipedia)
• Take guesses from your class. Then ask them to explain their guess.
• Ask them: How might we proceed to find out which student or group made the best guess? LetŐs do the experiment to help us find out.
Doing the Activity
• Hand out the activity sheet. Make sure the students understand the instructions.
• Each group will drop 50 toothpicks 10 at a time on their parallel lined arena.
• Students toss the toothpicks and make their predictions about what the class crossing average will be.
The teacher can do the experiment with a student and show the results on a spreadsheet.

• By Group - Worksheet 1
• By Class - Worksheet 2
• Complete worksheet 2 with the class. Who had the best guess? (Compare the group results with individual group guesses.)
• After finishing, ask the students how they might come up with even a better or best "guess"? (Theoretical probability is 2/Pi or approximately .6366197. See part 2 for more detail.)
Debriefing the activity and what about the surprise?
• Go to this website: http://www.metablake.com/pi.swf
• Can you explain what is happening?
• How did Pi get into the act? Hint: Double your number of your individual throws and divide it by the number of crosses. What do you get? Check with other groups. What can you conclude? (Your answer is an approximation for Pi.)
• Why does this happen? (See George Reese's explanation.)